In April 2025
Search & Filtering
Oil 0.2
No oil 0.8
It is possible for Shell ltd to hire a firm of international consultants to carry out a complete survey of the site. Shell ltd has used the firm many times before and has made the following estimates:
1. If there really is oil, then there is a 95% chance that the report will be favourable.
2. If there is no oil then there is only a 10% chance that the report will indicate that there is oil.
The following additional information is also provided:
· The cost of drilling is Sh.10 million.
· The value of the benefits if oil is found is Sh.70 million
· The cost of obtaining information is Sh.3 million.
Required:
a) Advise the company on whether to acquire additional information from the consultants (16 marks)
b) Compute the value of imperfect information. (4 marks)
5. Drawing a Card: If a card is drawn from a deck, find the probability of
getting these results:
a. A 6 and a spade
b. A black king
c. A red card and a 7
d. A diamond or a heart
e. A black card
4. Rolling Two Dice: If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of
getting these results.
a. A sum of 9
b. A sum of 7 or 11
c. A sum greater than or equal to 10
3. Rolling a Die: If a die is rolled one time, find these probabilities.
a. Getting a 2
b. Getting a number greater than 6
c. Getting an odd number
d. Getting an odd or even number
2. Classify each statement as an example of classical probability, empirical
probability, or subjective probability.
a. The probability that a person will watch the 6 o’clock evening news is 0.15.
b. The probability of winning at a Chuck-a-Luck game is 5/36.
c. The probability that a bus will be in an accident on a specific run is about 6%.
d. The probability of getting a royal flush when five cards are selected at random
is 1/649,740.
.
What is the difference between an outcome and an event?
find the area enclosed by the curve r^2=4cos theta
An association of city mayor conducted a study to determine the average number of times a family went to buy necesarries in a week.They found out that the mean is 4 times in a week
show that p↔q and (p∧q)∨(¬p∧¬q) are logically equivalent
Show that ¬(¬p) and p are logically equivalent.
