Answer to Question #251829 in Statistics and Probability for Joseph

Question

The number of fishing rods selling each day is given below. Perform analyses of the time series to determine which model should be used for forecasting.

 

a. 3 day moving average analysis

b. 4 day moving average analysis

c. 3 day weighted moving average analysis with weights w1=0.2, w2=0.3 and w3=0.5 with w1 on the oldest data

d. exponential smoothing analysis with a = 0.3.

e. Which model provides a better fit of the data?

f. Forecast day 13 sales of fishing rods using the model chosen in part (e).

Day

Rods sold

1 60

2 70

3 110

4 80

5 70

6 85

7 115

8 105

9 65

10 75

11 95

12 85