A gambler plays only one game for at most one hour each evening. The chance of showing a profit at the end of the hour if he plays roulette and blackjack is 30% and 20% respectively. He chooses blackjack on 60% of the evenings and roulette on the remaining evenings. Suppose he shows a profit after playing one a particular evening. What is the probability that that he played blackjack?
Let A be an event that the gambler shows a profit after playing,
H1 - he has played roulette,
H2 - he has played blackjack.
We have
Then we are to find the value of .
Using Bayes’ theorem formula we get:
Comments