ABC Ltd is evaluating to invest in two projects. Project X may yield a return of £1.5m with a probability of 20%, or a return of £5m with a probability of 60%. Project Y, instead, may earn a negative return of £3m with a probability of 70% or a positive return of £7m with a probability of 30%.
1) How much is the expected return for project X and Y?
Solution:
Expected return = "\\sum"(Return i "\\times" Probability i)
Expected return for project X = "\\sum"(1,500,000 "\\times" 0.2) + (5,000,000 "\\times" 0.60) = 300,000 + 3000,000 = 3,300,000
Expected return for project X = £3,300,000
Expected return for project Y = "\\sum"(-3000,000 "\\times" 0.7) + (7,000,000 "\\times" 0.30) = -2,100,000 + 2,100,000 = 0
Expected return for project X = £0
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