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{"ops":[{"insert":"\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Oil\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a00.2\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0No oil\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a00.8\n\u00a0\nIt is possible for Shell ltd to hire a firm of international consultants to carry out a complete survey of the site.\u00a0Shell ltd has used the firm many times before and has made the following estimates:\n\u00a0\n1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0If there really is oil, then there is a 95% chance that the report will be favourable.\n2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0If there is no oil then there is only a 10% chance that the report will indicate that there is oil.\n\u00a0\nThe following additional information is also provided:\n\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The cost of drilling is Sh.10 million.\n\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The value of the benefits if oil is found is Sh.70 million\n\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The cost of obtaining information is Sh.3 million.\n\u00a0\n"},{"attributes":{"bold":true},"insert":"Required:"},{"insert":"\na)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Advise the company on whether to acquire additional information from the consultants\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (16 marks)\nb)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Compute the value of imperfect information.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (4 marks)\n\n"}]}

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