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A construction company wants to bid for a project which consists of four activities: A, B, C and D. Some of these activities can be completed in parallel, while some cannot start until others are completed. The time needed to complete each activity is normally distributed. You are the project planner of the company and is asked to estimate the completion time of the project so that when the company bids for it, they can avoid the tardiness penalty. Implement a simulation in Excel to determine the average completion time of this project. The completion time stated in current contract is 50 days, based on your estimation, what is the probability that the construction company can finish it within that time (i.e. the proportion of simulation trials that give a completion time less than or equal to 50 days)? In your solution, provide your estimates, and describe your simulation procedure in words.
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