Answer in Statistics and Probability for jw #69226

Question #69226

A certain disease is spread by only direct contact. The probability of a healthy person to get infect by a single direct contact is 0.02. What is the chance that a healthy person gets infected with the disease by the fourth time he comes into contact with an infected person. (assume contact with the other person is independent)

Expert's answer

Answer on Question #69226 – Math – Statistics and Probability

Question

A certain disease is spread by only direct contact. The probability of a healthy person to get infect by a single direct contact is 0.02. What is the chance that a healthy person gets infected with the disease by the fourth time he comes into contact with an infected person (assume contact with the other person is independent)?

Solution

P = 1 - 0.98^4 \approx 0.0776.

Answer: 0.0776.

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Comments

Assignment Expert

22.11.17, 21:39

Thank you for correcting us. The value of 1-0.98^4 is the probability of being infected any time of the whole period when all four contacts occur. The value of 0.98^3*0.02 is the probability of being infected only the last fourth time a healthy person comes into contact with an infected person.

Yew

22.11.17, 04:25

Some would compute it as 1 - 0.98^4 = 0.0776. What would be the difference? My school gives the solution as such.