Answer to Question #338977 in Statistics and Probability for eliakim

Question

You are working for a transport company and recently extracted the following data from your Transport Management System for the purpose of making forecasts for year 6. Period Actual Demand 1 200 2 212 3 214 4 222 5 236 6 ?

a) Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment (FIT) to forecast deliveries for period 6. Let alpha (𝛼) =0.4, beta (𝛽)= 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200.

b) Use the two period moving average to calculate the forecast for periods 3 though to 6

c) Compute MAPE for the periods 3 through to 6 and comment on which method is preferred

Answer 1

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