Answer to Question #170640 in Statistics and Probability for Parag

Question

The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To know, the extent the prediction is correct the actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4 millimeters) is provided. Find out which alpha values among the three suggestions are near to accurate value?

SUBDIVISION

YEAR

ANNUAL (in MM)

Gujarat Region

1997

1068.9

Gujarat Region

1998

1070

Gujarat Region

1999

568.4

Gujarat Region

2000

550.6

Gujarat Region

2001

849

Gujarat Region

2002

637.2

Gujarat Region

2003

1160.3

Gujarat Region

2004

1005.8

Gujarat Region

2005

1316.4

Gujarat Region

2006

1478

Gujarat Region

2007

1178.9

Gujarat Region

2008

911.1

Gujarat Region

2009

641.6

Gujarat Region

2010

1088.7

Gujarat Region

2011

890.5

Gujarat Region

2012

714

Gujarat Region

2013

1118.6

Gujarat Region

2014

705.7

Gujarat Region

2015

622.9

Gujarat Region

2016

764.9

Answer 1

Dear Parag, your question requires a lot of work, which neither of our experts is ready to perform for free. We advise you to convert it to a fully qualified order and we will try to help you. Please click the link below to proceed: Submit order