We denote by "A" the event: the cake fails to rise, and by "B" the event: the cake was baked by Khurram. The aim is to find "P(B|A)" . Using (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability) we have:
"P(B|A)=\\frac{P(A\\cap B)}{P(A)}=\\frac{0.25\\cdot0.02}{0.55\\cdot0.03+0.25\\cdot0.02+0.2\\cdot0.05}=0.1587" (rounded to 4 decimal places)
Answer:0.1587
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