We denote by A the event: the cake fails to rise, and by B the event: the cake was baked by Khurram. The aim is to find P(B∣A) . Using (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability) we have:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=0.55⋅0.03+0.25⋅0.02+0.2⋅0.050.25⋅0.02=0.1587 (rounded to 4 decimal places)
Answer:0.1587
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