Answer to Question #108380 in Statistics and Probability for Lexi Boulanger

Question

After the political ad campaign described
in Exercise 1a, pollsters check the governor’s negatives.
They test the hypothesis that the ads produced no change
against the alternative that the negatives are now below
30% and find a P-value of 0.22. Which conclusion is appropriate? Explain.

Answer 1

Given $p=0.22=22\%$

This means that the probability of obtainiing similar or more exrteme results is 22%, if the null hypothesis of no change is true.

There’s a 22% chance that natural sampling variation could produce poll results like these if there’s

really no change in public opinion.