Answer to Question #197068 in Management for Ishita

Question

The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To know, what extent the prediction is correct, actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4 millimeters) is provided. Based on MSE and MAD, find out which alpha values among the three suggestions are relatively near to actual value?

Year ANNUAL (in MM)

1997 1068.9

1998 1070

1999 568.4

2000 550.6

2001 849

2002 637.2

2003 1160.3

2004 1005.8

2005 1316.4

2006 1478

2007 1178.9

2008 911.1

2009 641.6

2010 1088.7

2011 890.5

2012 714

2013 1118.6

2014 705.7

2015 622.9

2016 764.9

Answer 1

2009 641.6

2010 1088.7

2011 890.5