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Consider a time series of some economic variable (at least of 20 years) and estimate the trend using the following methods: Graphic Method Method of Semi Averages Method of Least Squares Method of Moving Averages ( determine the period of MA also: if not possible take m=4) Interpret your result for each of the method. Also plot the trend values obtained from Method of Least Squares and Method of Moving Averages against the original data and compare the results from the two methods. Also find the trend eliminated values of the variable. Least squares method


3. In an open economy  A = C + I + G + X – Z, with the assumption that induced imports



exist:



If consumption equals R10 mil., investments R30 mil., government expenditure R45 mil.,



exports R20 mil., imports R5 mil., and the marginal propensity to consume equals 0.7, the



marginal propensity to import 0.25 and the tax rate 0.15:



3.1 What is the size of the autonomous aggregate expenditure (A) in this economy?



3.2 What is the size of the multiplier ()?



3.3 What is the size of equilibrium income (Y0) in this economy?

2. Imagine a closed economy where the dictatorship does not allow any trade with other countries. If the autonomous consumption equals R10 mil., autonomous investment equals R20 mil., the tax rate equals 15%, government expenditure R30 mil. and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC = c) equals 0.7.


2.1 What is the size of the multiplier ()?


2.2 What is the equilibrium level of income (Y0)?


2.3 How much will the tax revenue for the goverment be in this economy?


2.4 How much will the disposable income be in this economy?



You have studied Business Ethics in a structured manner in this program. Has it helped 

you with tools to better manage your decision making process as a business person? 

Explain in your own words. 



PROBLEM:

Suppose a sample x1, ..., xn is modelled by a Poisson distribution with parameter denoted λ, so that

 

 

(a)   Restate the likelihood function of a Poisson distribution

 

(b)  Prove that the natural log likelihood function of the Poisson distribution i.e. show that you arrive at this log function.

 

(c)   Expand, rearrange, and take first derivate and show that you arrive at the function below

(d)  Find the maximum likelihood function (Hint: make equation in (c) equal to 0.

 

(e)   Let us assume a dataset with n= 647 and the observed frequencies of domestic accidents are as follows

 

Number of accidents Frequency

0 447

1 132

2 42

3 21

4 3

5 2



Using the Poisson distribution, calculate the MLE for λ i.e. prove that MLE for λ is 0.465.


2) Why do so many developing countries select such poor development policies, and what can be done to improve these choices?

11) What is the role of the financial intermediation in economic development?

12) How can financial and fiscal policy help promote development?

5) What is meant by globalization, and in what ways does it affect different countries?


4) Who receives the gains from international trade, and can trade be used successfully as an engine of broad development? What policies can affect this under different circumstances?


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