Question

Forecast the demand for the rice for a country for the year 2021 on the basis of 7-year

moving average and least square method, data given in table:

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Population (millions) 10 12 15 20 25 30 40

Rice consumed (million tonnes) 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Answer 1

$Solution$

Moving average

$\frac{490}{7}=70$

Least square method

$$n=7,\sum\ x=152, \sum\ y=490,\sum \ xy=12000,\sum\ X^2=3994$$

$b=\frac{n.\sum xy-\sum x.\sum y}{n.\sum x ^2-(\sum x)^2}$

$a=\frac{\sum y \ - \ b.\sum x}{n}$

$b=\frac{9520}{4854}=1.96$

$a=\frac{192.08}{7}=27.44$

$Y=a+bx=27.44+1.96x$

$Example \ assume \ 2021\ population =50m\\consumption \ will\ be \\ Y=27.44+(1.96\times 50=125.44$