Answer to Question #236312 in Macroeconomics for Charlie

Question

At the end of September, a barrel of light crude oil sold for almost $70 compared to a price near $30 a barrel in January 9f 2004. To answer the following questions,assume bind traders expect inflation to rise from 3% in 2005 to 5% in both 2006 and 2007. Also traders expect the American economy to enter a recession in 2007. Assume the prior to the recent run up oil prices, bond traders had expected inflation to remain stable in 2006 and 2007 at 3%.

Using a model of supply and demand for one year T-Bills, illustrate and explain the impact of a recession ( a business cycle contraction) if bond traders expect that this recession will occur in 2007,what do you expect to happen to yields on one year T- Bills in 2007?

Answer 1

During the recession, people will buy less of crude oil. Therefore, demand curves for will shift to the left during a recession.

The aggregate supply will fall during recession since people consume less.